Swiss Watch Exports in Q3 2026: Mexico, the US and a Recovery Built from Below

In Mexico, a Swiss watch is usually found on a phone before it is found in a shop. Consumer research that Deloitte published in July names Facebook and WhatsApp as the strongest sources of inspiration for Mexican watch buyers. The purchase itself still happens in person, at a counter where trust can be built, and owners then weigh their security when they decide where to wear what they bought. A watch in Mexico signals success, and its owners choose their moments.

That cautious and confident market has been one of the steadiest for the Swiss watch industry through two unsettled years. On 20 October 2026, the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry, known as the FH, published its figures for September, which close a third quarter that turned the year around. Exports rose 11.7 per cent in September to 2.23 billion Swiss francs, after gains of around nine per cent in both July and August. At the end of June, the industry had stood 0.7 per cent behind the previous year. After nine months, it is 2.7 per cent ahead, at 19.5 billion francs.

Three movements carried the quarter: Mexico’s long run of growth, a recovery in the United States from last year’s tariff collapse, and a sharp rise in the least expensive Swiss watches. A new Deloitte study on the industry’s suppliers shows the trend running beneath all three, an industry that ships far fewer watches than it did a decade ago.

Swiss Watches in Mexico: Steady Growth Through the Tariff Years

Mexico is one of the fastest-growing markets for Swiss watches and the largest in Latin America. In 2024, Swiss watch exports to the country reached 337 million francs, almost half of everything Switzerland shipped to Central and South America, according to Deloitte.

The market held through the months that shook the industry’s largest customer. On 7 August 2025, a 39 per cent US tariff on Swiss goods took effect. In September 2025, exports to the United States fell by more than half, while exports to Mexico rose 44 per cent. In the first half of 2026, Mexico grew another 14.9 per cent, and the FH named it, together with India, as the market with the strongest growth, one that “has performed steadily for several years”.

Deloitte’s spotlight on Mexico, published on 15 July 2026 and based on a survey of more than 6,000 consumers in 13 markets, describes how that market buys. Mexico City dominates, while Cancún, Guadalajara and Monterrey are gaining weight. Swiss brands sell through their own boutiques, through multi-brand retailers and through department stores. Buyers are price-conscious and attentive to design, and they respond to limited editions and to designs that draw on their own culture.

The market remains largely male. Women often arrive through jewellery watches and gifts, and a professionalising pre-owned trade gives newcomers a less expensive way in. Together with India, Mexico belongs to the new geographies of watch power, the markets that are widening Swiss demand beyond its established centres.

Swiss Watch Exports to the US: A Recovery Measured Against a Collapse

Swiss watch exports to the United States rose 85.7 per cent in September 2026, to 292.9 million francs, and the FH supplied the explanation itself. The comparison runs against September 2025, the first full month of the 39 per cent tariff, when shipments to the United States fell to 158 million francs. Measured against September 2024, before the dispute began, US exports remain about 60 million francs short.

The tariff has changed three times since it took effect. It fell to 15 per cent under an agreement in November. On 20 February 2026, the US Supreme Court ruled that the legal basis for those tariffs was insufficient, and a temporary 10 per cent surcharge took their place. Since 24 July 2026, Swiss goods have faced a total US tariff of 12.5 per cent, according to SECO, the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs.

Importers moved ahead of that last change. In July, exports to the United States rose 26.5 per cent to 701.3 million francs. Across the swings, the United States has remained the industry’s largest market, and in September it took 13.2 per cent of everything Switzerland exported.

The demand behind those shipments rests on a concentrated base of wealth. US household wealth rose by 12.8 trillion dollars in the second quarter of 2026, carried by the stock market. The top one per cent of households hold 51 per cent of all shares, as the AI Wealth Effect set out. The wider US luxury market has divided along the same line.

France produced the month’s other striking number. Exports there rose 128.8 per cent, which the FH attributes to the way shipments are now allocated between European markets, at the expense of other countries in the region. France has served as a logistics hub for Swiss watches since late 2025, and its figures say more about delivery routes than about French buyers.

Swiss Watches Under 500 Francs: Where the Q3 Growth Came From

The strongest growth in September came from the least expensive Swiss watches. Exports of watches with an export price below 200 francs rose 30 per cent, and those between 200 and 500 francs rose 52 per cent. The most expensive segment, above 3,000 francs, grew 9.9 per cent, less than the industry as a whole.

Steel carried the volume. Steel watches rose 21.5 per cent in units and 13 per cent in value, and together with watches in other materials, they account for 81 per cent of all the pieces Switzerland exports. Bimetallic models, which combine steel and gold, rose 29.3 per cent. In total, 228,000 more Swiss watches left the country in September than in August.

The shift had been building all year. In the first half of 2026, the FH reported, volume growth came mainly from mechanical watches with an export price below 500 francs, up 23.8 per cent. The segment between 500 and 3,000 francs lost 5.7 per cent in value. That pattern follows the hourglass economy, in which the middle of the market thins while its ends hold. Deloitte had recorded a 16 per cent decline for watches up to 3,000 francs in its 2025 study, describing an industry shedding its middle.

For buyers, the door to Swiss mechanical watchmaking is opening widest at its lowest price.

Deloitte Swiss Watch Industry Insights 2026: Fewer Watches, Higher Values

Deloitte’s 2026 edition comes as a series of spotlights. The first, in July, covered Mexico. The second, published on 30 September, turns to the component makers and suppliers who build what the brands sell, and draws on a survey of 42 supplier executives and more than 6,500 consumers in 13 markets.

Its central figure frames the whole quarter. Switzerland exported about 14.6 million wristwatches in 2025, 43 per cent fewer than in 2016. Over the same period, the value of Swiss watch exports rose 34 per cent, to 25.2 billion francs, and employment in the industry grew 14 per cent, to 64,807 people. Deloitte writes that the rise in value conceals a structural risk.

The risk sits with the suppliers. Of those surveyed, 79 per cent see falling watch sales either as a structural risk or as pressure to move upmarket and innovate. Half had to cut staff or investment this year, compared with 57 per cent in 2025. They are responding by consolidating and by moving into neighbouring fields, from medical technology to jewellery, and around 40 per cent plan to use artificial intelligence.

The label still sells. In Deloitte’s consumer survey, 58 per cent of respondents prefer a watch marked Swiss Made, clearly or somewhat. For the suppliers behind that label, the growth below 500 francs in the third quarter means something simple: more watches, and more orders.

Swiss Watch Exports by Market: Japan Rises as China Falls

China fell 14.2 per cent in September, which the FH attributes to an unusually strong month a year earlier. Shipments to Singapore and the United Arab Emirates also declined. Japan rose 12 per cent to 177.3 million francs, Hong Kong grew 3 per cent, and the United Kingdom slipped 5 per cent.

China’s place in the industry has changed quickly. It was the second-largest market for Swiss watches at the end of 2024, and by mid-2026 it had dropped to sixth, according to the FH. India grew 31.5 per cent in the first half of 2026, and the FH sees it as the market with the best long-term prospects for the industry, a rise followed in India’s luxury watch market.

The FH expects 2026 as a whole to end close to 2025. The total may barely move. The watches inside it have already changed: more steel, more pieces below 500 francs, and a growing share bound for Mexico and India.