Silent Luxury

Looking into 2026, the Swiss watch industry has prepared itself for a future defined by Muted Growth and a radically Diversified Geographic Architecture. The era of relying on singular, dominant markets is over. This strategic outlook is the direct consequence of the year 2025, a period of hard-headed pragmatism where brands traded external expansion for internal sovereignty.

The full extent of the "Strategy of Control"—the verticalization of supply chains, the stringent cost discipline, and the shedding of complexity—explains precisely why the industry is now structurally prepared to navigate a multipolar world. The following analysis details the crucial decisions that led to this fundamental reordering, using the pressures of 2025 (weakened demand, swelled inventories, new trade barriers) as a necessary explanation for the new 2026 reality.

Keep Calm and Carry On: The New Mood of Pragmatism

The mood in the industry? Pragmatic. No euphoria, no despair—simply realism. The pressure to constantly deliver novelties remains. But the mantra of "being present everywhere" has been retired. Instead: control costs, focus resources, hold the line.

The days when independent labels were celebrated as "the next big thing" are over. Since 2023, few new players have entered the market—aside from micro-brands and revived heritage names. The exceptions prove the rule: Purnell, an independent Geneva-based manufacturer in the high-end segment, went into liquidation in 2024. Various media outlets reported in February 2025 that Rolex had allegedly decided to discontinue the Carl F. Bucherer brand after 137 years.

Nevertheless, independent watchmakers show resilience. According to the Independent Watchmaking Report 2025, 60% of surveyed companies (mostly producing fewer than 10,000 watches annually) expect to sell more in 2025 than in 2024. The motto: Keep calm and carry on.

Pressure on the Ecosystem: The End of Expansion

To remain visible, fresh releases are essential. 82% of brand executives cite the introduction of new products as their top priority for the next twelve months. The brands' answer: creativity. Colour, form, playfulness.

The Gelato Principle

Norqain launched its "Ice Cream" watch this summer—pastel-coloured dials inspired by gelato. "We feel the need of our clients for some joy and carefreeness," explains Ben Kuffer, Founder and CEO of Norqain. "We clearly see a trend for watches that are fun and different, some of which remind them of their childhood."

Oris presented the New Big Crown with colourful dials, Blancpain a Fifty Fathoms in pink. Even Chanel, traditionally fixed on black and white, ventured a limited J12 edition in blue.

Yet the question remains: Is the Gelato Principle an economically viable answer to the crisis—or merely a tactical manoeuvre in an overheated innovation cycle? Can playfulness and colour actually rescue sales when purchasing power is under pressure and consumers are becoming more selective? Or will this aesthetic offensive be overtaken by the next trend wave in twelve months, while the industry's structural problems remain unsolved? Innovation here means less technical precision than the attempt to purchase attention through visual signals—in a market that increasingly distinguishes between genuine substance and short-lived marketing.

Form is also evolving. Patek Philippe introduced the Cubitus in 2024—a square design that stands out in a landscape still dominated by round cases. TAG Heuer revived the iconic Monaco.

Simultaneously, heritage pulls: Panerai honoured a 1993 model with the Luminar Marina Militare PAM05218. Cartier brought back the Tank à Guichet, originally launched in 1928. Vacheron Constantin reactivated the 222 from 1977. Tiffany & Co. paid tribute to Jean Schlumberger's Bird on a Rock brooch from 1965 in January 2025.

AI as Creative Partner

The technological frontier now extends into the design atelier itself. Nearly one-third of executives (29%) plan to deploy artificial intelligence to support the creative product development process—a significant increase from 20% in 2023.

AI is no longer used solely for content creation or efficiency gains. Brands are beginning to experiment: with algorithmic form-finding, with generative design processes, with AI-supported material simulation. The precision of the future is digital—even in the creative realm.

Despite the cautious mood, more than half of brands target organic growth or expansion into new markets. M&A activity is dormant—growth must be cultivated, not bought.

But the harsher reality also shows: 46% of brand executives cite cost reduction as a strong priority. In 2023, it was only 10%.

Consolidation and Verticalization: Strategic Retreat Inward

Retailers are fighting too. In 2023, all surveyed retail executives focused on e-commerce and digital channels, two-thirds on omnichannel. 2025? Different priorities.

Organic growth (60%) and optimisation of sales channels (53%) now top the list. Omnichannel is only relevant for 47%, e-commerce has dropped out of the top 5 entirely. Cost reduction climbed to 40% (2023: 11%).

The shift is explained by market changes: consumers are returning to physical stores. The sweet spot for digital sales has been found—now other things matter.

This is visible on the streets. In March 2025, Les Ambassadeurs, a Geneva retail flagship since 1964, closed its boutique in Geneva. Zurich followed. Lucerne is expected to close by year-end. At the same time, O. Zbinden, another Geneva institution, announced restructuring into mono-brand stores.

But not every closure signals retreat. Often it's restructuring, consolidation. Watches of Switzerland Group closed several showrooms in the UK—but simultaneously opened the largest Rolex mono-brand store in London.

The Mono-Brand Push

Brands increasingly prefer their own boutiques. Control over layout, training, customer experience, data. Audemars Piguet pioneered in 2017 and has since sold exclusively through its own boutiques. Others followed. In 2023, Rolex acquired Bucherer—one of the largest distribution networks brought directly under control.

This structural shift hits independent retailers hard. Less foot traffic, fewer points of sale, tougher market conditions.

The Tourism Factor

Adding to this: tourists are missing. Overall visitor numbers to Switzerland grew—Mexico increased by +114% in 2024 compared to 2019. But Asian tourists, particularly Chinese, are staying away. Overnight stays from China: -48%. From Japan: -38%. From Hong Kong: -32%.

These customers were crucial for Swiss watch retailers. The strong franc exacerbates the problem. Less foot traffic, lower revenues, tougher competition.

The Rebirth of Independence: Resilience of the Small Players

The suppliers, the invisible backbone of the Swiss watch industry, are fighting hardest. They carry the Swiss Made label, preserve centuries-old know-how—and feel the downturn first.

Their priorities reflect the crisis: Cost reduction (74%) and new product development (61%) top the list. Nearly one-third cite cashflow improvement as an important goal.

The Hard Cuts

How have suppliers responded?

• 70%: Slowed investments

• 63%: Introduced short-time work (RHT)

• 57%: Cut permanent positions

• 43%: Eliminated temporary positions

• 27%: Diversified into other industries

• 3%: Stopped investments

• 3%: Not affected

The Swiss Federal Council extended the maximum duration of RHT payments from twelve to eighteen months in May 2025—in September came another extension to 24 months. The goal: relief without mass layoffs, to preserve valuable talent and know-how.

SECO data confirms: The use of short-time work increased significantly in 2025—both the number of companies and compensated hours.

Nevertheless: Investment in the Future

Despite harsh measures, suppliers continue investing in R&D. For the next twelve months they plan:

• 70%: Investments in Industry 4.0 and automation

• 67%: Mastering new processes for existing parts

• 63%: Acquisition of new customers

• 63%: Work with new materials

Development concentrates on three forward-looking axes:

Industry 4.0 and Automation

As a direct response to high wage and cost pressure in Switzerland, component manufacturers rely on automated, self-correcting production lines with integrated metrology. The precision of the future is digital.

New Materials

Given the volatility of traditional raw material prices, material intelligence becomes a strategic competitive advantage. Gold reached historic highs in 2024 and 2025—driven by geopolitical uncertainty, central bank accumulation, and reduced mining supply. The result: not only higher costs, but a new sensitivity to timing. Several maisons secure gold reserves earlier in the fiscal year to smooth risks across production timelines.

Steel and titanium follow different trajectories. Both metals are shaped by industrial forces outside the luxury sector: the electrification of automotive supply chains affects steel availability, while aerospace demand places pressure on titanium. These shifts influence not only prices but also the symbolic role of materials.

Ceramic adoption is accelerating as its production is less exposed to metal market volatility. Carbon composites expand the design vocabulary of sports and high-performance models.

The Quiet Variable: Energy and Compliance

Energy remains the quiet variable behind the scenes. Swiss electricity prices fluctuate with European grid volatility, affecting workshop operations and refining processes. Gold refiners face stricter audits under updated LBMA criteria.

At the same time, sustainability regulation adds a structural layer: EU CBAM requirements, stricter Swiss due diligence standards, and growing consumer expectations in markets like the US and India turn material transparency into measurable costs. Provenance must be documented with increasing precision, and compliance becomes part of the value proposition.

Steel or titanium importers prepare extended documentation for CBAM compliance. These requirements reshape cost structures—not dramatically, but consistently, with administrative and regulatory layers that accumulate over time.

The message: We are preparing. When demand returns, we are ready—technologically, materially, and regulatorily.

The Necessity of Disruption: New Avenues and Formats

The downturn slows but does not stop. Acquisitions and investments reshape the landscape—with focus on resilience and preservation.

Consolidation in Retail

In retail, the answer is: consolidation. The 1916 Company emerged in 2023 through the merger of online pre-owned platform WatchBox with independent retailers Govberg, Hyde Park, and Radcliffe Jewelers. The fusion gave consumers access to a broad network of multi- and mono-brand stores as well as extensive pre-owned stock.

Similar strategies in the US: Berkshire Hathaway brought its watch and jewellery retailers Helzberg Diamonds and Ben Bridge Jeweler together under the new BH Jewelry Group to unify management and increase scale.

Heritage Revitalisation

Breitling revitalises heritage names. In late 2023, the brand acquired Universal Genève, followed by Gallet in 2025 (goal: relaunch for the 200th anniversary). Breitling's ambition: growth into a broader luxury house.

LVMH expanded in 2024 with L'Epée 1839, a specialist in high-end clocks operating in the luxury automaton market. Tiffany & Co. joined in 2021—the relaunch of the watchmaking heritage followed in 2025. Gérald Genta and Daniel Roth were also revived in 2023—Daniel Roth won a prize for best tourbillon watch at the 2024 Grand Prix d'Horlogerie de Genève.

Chanel has invested in independent watchmakers since 1998—beginning with Bell & Ross, followed by stakes in Kenissi, F.P. Journe, and Romain Gauthier. In 2024 came a minority stake in MB&F, explicitly framed as a commitment to long-term preservation of watchmaking savoir-faire.

Smaller transactions show similar motives: Corum returned to Swiss ownership in 2025 through a management buyout led by Sales Director Haso Mehmedovic (previously Chinese holding Citychamp since 2013). Similar revitalisation stories at Urban Jürgensen, Benrus, and Carl Suchy—niche names that would otherwise have disappeared.

"Luxury watchmaking prevails when expertise is woven into a story, and the story is forged into heritage." – Pascal Béchu, Managing Director, Arnold & Son and Angelus

Verticalisation as Strategic Hedge

Patek Philippe, Rolex, and Richemont jointly acquired Incabloc in 2024, specialised in shock-absorber systems. Audemars Piguet acquired a stake in Inhotec, a specialised component manufacturer, pointing to a growing trend of verticalisation—watchmakers seek closer ties to their suppliers.

In June 2025, the Sandoz Family Foundation decided to retain its pôle horloger (including Parmigiani Fleurier and Vaucher Manufacture)—after previously considering a sale.

Taken together, these moves underscore an industry-wide theme: whether through investments in component makers or keeping long-standing suppliers within the fold, watch companies and their backers are paying renewed attention to the ecosystem that underpins Swiss watchmaking.

The message: verticalisation as a form of resilience. Supply security in an era of global disruptions and uncontrollable cost developments in material prices. Knowledge, technology, critical components—everything is brought inside the corporations.

The Long Run – Sustainability as Long-Term Theme

Sustainability remains firmly embedded in the long-term outlook. 29% of companies voluntarily publish sustainability reports, another 13% do so for regulatory reasons. Of those not yet publishing, roughly one-third would like to begin.

The Gap Between Consumers and Industry

But consumers and industry approach the subject from different perspectives:

Consumers prioritise:

1. Craftsmanship / Mechanics (34%) – The idea of a watch as a lasting, well-made object is itself part of sustainable thinking

2. Ethical sourcing of materials and human rights (approx. 25%)

3. Little or recyclable packaging

4. Longevity / Circularity (37% in purchase decision)

5. Sustainability (25% in purchase decision)

Industry executives prioritise:

1. Ethical sourcing of materials (77%)

2. Recyclable packaging (42%)

3. Craftsmanship (40%)

4. Circularity

5. Eco-design

The gap: Consumers see the watch itself as a sustainable object (durable, well-made). The industry focuses primarily on sourcing and packaging.

Why Do Brands Invest in Sustainability?

• 61%: Reduce the company's carbon footprint

• 51%: To comply with new or existing regulations

• 49%: Brand image

• 49%: It is part of our corporate strategy

• 41%: Changing consumer demand / behaviour

The Biggest Hurdles

Implementation remains complex:

• 47%: Difficulties collecting and integrating reliable sustainability data

• 41%: Procurement and sourcing

• 33%: Inflexible supply chains

Product innovation shows initial approaches: Tissot's PRC 100 Solar uses solar technology to recharge its battery, while Sequent's SolarCharger is powered by wrist motion—both examples of how sustainability is beginning to shape the design of timepieces themselves.

"We believe in Swiss smartwatches; blending traditional timepieces and high-end technology. Advanced research into solar technology allows us to be distinctive." – Sylvain Dolla, CEO, Tissot

Between Adaptation and Persistence: The New Rhythm of the Industry

The atelier is no longer simply the site of craft. It becomes a strategic centre of gravity—a place where design, engineering, and economics converge. Material intelligence grows into a competitive capability, defined by the ability to anticipate volatility, integrate critical processes, and navigate a landscape that increasingly values proof over promise.

The Swiss watch industry is not a monolith. It is a network of hundreds of players who depend on each other. 2025 showed: this network holds. But it costs. Short-time work, job cuts, slowed investments, boutique closures.

At the same time: innovation continues. Acquisitions secure the ecosystem. Brands, retailers, suppliers—all adapt. The ability to manage inputs, stabilise production, and align material choices with market expectations shapes how Swiss watchmaking moves forward.

"It was close to our heart to experiment with new employee engagement initiatives; such as offering to almost all our employees, including the manufacturing staff, to become shareholders of the business, based on some very objective criteria. 100% of our team members who were offered the opportunity adhered to such." – Xavier de Roquemaurel, CEO, Czapek & Cie

The question remains: How long will this hold? And what happens if demand does not return?

Outlook 2026: Muted Growth, New Geography

The global luxury watch market is projected to grow from USD 47.91 billion (2025) to USD 51.05 billion in 2026—a solid increase of 6.9% CAGR that extends to 2034. But this optimism is unevenly distributed. The Swiss Watch Market itself shows more muted projections: 3.7% CAGR through 2033, significantly below the momentum of the global luxury category.

Top Risks for 2026

Deloitte-surveyed executives cite two dominant risks for the coming twelve months:

1. The strong Swiss franc – the persistent burden on exporters that compresses translated revenues even when unit sales remain stable

2. Weakening global demand – particularly in China, which already recorded -35.6% export decline in 2024

The US remains volatile: after the tariff-induced pull-forward in the first half of 2025 (with +45% in July), August saw a -23.9% slump. Watches of Switzerland maintains its Fiscal 2026 guidance (6-10% revenue growth) but warns of 100 basis points margin pressure.

The Geographic Shift

The future no longer lies primarily in China and the US. Asia-Pacific remains the fastest-growing region (CAGR 7.1%), but the weight is shifting:

• India is touted as the "next big growth market"—projections see CHF 400+ million export volume by 2028, with potential for top-10 placement within a decade

• Southeast Asia (Vietnam, Indonesia) shows new appetite for luxury, with Singapore as regional gateway

• Mexico increased tourist overnight stays by +114% in 2024 (vs. 2019) and is developing into a market of hope

• Middle East remains stable, while Europe (especially Germany, UK, France) consolidates as retail base

What Decides 2026

The industry faces a structural question: Can diversification absorb the volatility created by overexposure to China and the US? The FH warns soberly: "Any recovery in the market will depend largely on the outlook in China, where uncertainty remains high."

At the same time, new growth levers emerge:

• Certified Pre-Owned (CPO): From niche to strategic growth driver with higher margins and closer client engagement

• Experiential Retail: Flagships like the new Rolex store in London exceed expectations

• Digital Integration: E-commerce grows, especially in the US

• Sustainability Compliance: EU CBAM requirements and Digital Product Passports become operational reality from 2026

But innovation alone is not enough. In 2026, the industry needs above all one thing: purchasing power stability. Disposable income in emerging markets must continue to grow. Currency volatility must calm down. And geopolitical tensions—between US, China, Europe—must not escalate further.

In the atelier, under the pressure of rising material costs and the necessity for automation, the future of precision is being manufactured—through a fusion of finest craftsmanship and sharpest technology. Control becomes a form of resilience.

Sources

Primary Source:

• Deloitte Swiss Watch Industry Study 2025: "Time under pressure"
  https://www.deloitte.com/ch/en/Industries/consumer/perspectives/swiss-watch-industry-study.html

Additional Sources:

• The Hour Makers (February 2025): "Rolex Discontinues Carl F. Bucherer Brand after 137 Years"
  https://thehourmarkers.com/articles/rolex-shuts-down-carl-f-bucherer

• Europa Star (July 2025): "Key findings from a new study on independent watchmakers"
  https://www.europastar.com/the-watch-files/independent-watchmakers/1004115230-key-findings-from-a-new-study-on-independent.html

• Revolution (January 2025): "Tiffany & Co. debuts new jewelry timepieces and finest works from their archival collection"
  https://revolutionwatch.com/lvmh-watch-week-2025-tiffany-co-jewelry-archives-new/

• Bilan (May 2025): "À Genève, l'agonie des détaillants horlogers"
  https://www.bilan.ch/story/horlogerie-a-geneve-lagonie-des-detaillants-horlogers-591712121674

• BBC (April 2025): "Luxury watch firm to close showrooms and cut jobs"
  https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckgx45r7ge2o

• Europa Star (January 2023): "Concentration continues in watch distribution"
  https://www.europastar.com/the-watch-files/retail/1004094069-concentration-continues-in-watch-distribution.html

• Schweizer Parlament (September 2025): "Schweizer Parlament stimmt Verlängerung der Kurzarbeitsentschädigung zu"
  https://www.parlament.ch/de/services/news/Seiten/2025/20250918094527290194158159026_bsd051.aspx

• Forbes (November 2023): "WatchBox, Govberg, Radcliffe and Hyde Park Jewelers merge to form the 1916 Company"
  https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertanaas/2023/11/01/watchbox-govberg-radcliffe-hyde-park-jewelers-merge-form-the-1916-company/

• Professional Watches (August 2025): "Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway forms 'BH Jewelry Group'"
  https://professionalwatches.com/warren-buffetts-berkshire-hathaway-forms-bh-jewelry-group/

• Bilan (March 2025): "Breitling rachète le bicentenaire Gallet"
  https://www.bilan.ch/story/horlogerie-breitling-rachete-le-bicentenaire-gallet-715434555563

• LVMH (June 2024): "LVMH strengthens its Watches Division with the acquisition of L'Epée 1839"
  https://www.lvmh.com/en/publications/lvmh-strengthens-its-watches-division-with-the-acquisition-of-lepee-1839

• The Straits Times (August 2025): "Back to the future: How Tiffany & Co. is reclaiming its place in watchmaking"
  https://www.straitstimes.com/life/style/back-to-the-future-how-tiffany-co-is-reclaiming-its-place-in-watchmaking

• Revolution (August 2024): "Chanel acquires 25% stake in MB&F"
  https://revolutionwatch.com/chanel-mbandf-stake/

• Monochrome (April 2025): "Corum is back in Swiss hands in the frame of a management buy-out"
  https://monochrome-watches.com/corum-is-back-in-swiss-hands-in-the-frame-of-a-management-buy-out-citychamp-out-industry-news/

• Bilanz (August 2025): "Audemars Piguet übernimmt wichtigen Zulieferer"
  https://www.bilanz.ch/watches/audemars-piguet-ubernimmt-wichtigen-zulieferer-852163

• Le Temps (June 2025): "La Fondation Sandoz garde la main sur son pôle horloger avec Hermès en premier partenaire"
  https://www.letemps.ch/economie/horlogerie-joaillerie/la-fondation-sandoz-garde-la-main-sur-son-pole-horloger-avec-hermes-en-premier-partenaire

2026 Outlook:

• Straits Research (September 2025): "Luxury Watch Market Size & Outlook, 2026-2034"
  https://straitsresearch.com/report/luxury-watch-market

• Grand View Research (2025): "Swiss Watch Market Size & Share | Industry Report, 2033"
  https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/swiss-watch-market-report

• RLC Global Forum (October 2025): "Swiss Watch Exports: Global Headwinds, Local Solutions and Reinvention"
  https://rlcglobalforum.com/retail-insights/swiss-watch-exports-global-headwinds-local-solutions-and-reinvention/

• Fashion United (September 2025): "Watches of Switzerland maintains fiscal 2026 outlook"
  https://fashionunited.uk/news/business/watches-of-switzerland-maintains-fiscal-2026-outlook/2025090483740