The future is muted growth: How verticalization and geographic diversification become the keys to stability.
Looking into 2026, the Swiss watch industry has prepared itself for a future defined by Muted Growth and a radically Diversified Geographic Architecture. The era of relying on singular, dominant markets is over. This strategic outlook is the direct consequence of the year 2025, a period of hard-headed pragmatism where brands traded external expansion for internal sovereignty. The full extent of the “Strategy of Control”—the verticalization of supply chains, the stringent cost discipline, and the shedding of complexity—explains precisely why the industry is now structurally prepared to navigate a multipolar world. The following analysis details the crucial decisions that led to this fundamental reordering, using the pressures of 2025 (weakened demand, swelled inventories, new trade barriers) as a necessary explanation for the new 2026 reality.
Keep Calm and Carry On: The New Mood of Pragmatism
The mood in the industry? Pragmatic. No euphoria, no despair—simply realism. The pressure to constantly deliver novelties remains. But the mantra of “being present everywhere” has been retired. Instead: control costs, focus resources, hold the line.
The days when independent labels were celebrated as “the next big thing” are over. Since 2023, few new players have entered the market—aside from micro-brands and revived heritage names. The exceptions prove the rule: Purnell, an independent Geneva-based manufacturer in the high-end segment, went into liquidation in 2024. Various media outlets reported in February 2025 that Rolex had allegedly decided to discontinue the Carl F. Bucherer brand after 137 years.
Nevertheless, independent watchmakers show resilience. According to the Independent Watchmaking Report 2025, 60% of surveyed companies (mostly producing fewer than 10,000 watches annually) expect to sell more in 2025 than in 2024. The motto: Keep calm and carry on.
Pressure on the Ecosystem: The End of Expansion
To remain visible, fresh releases are essential. 82% of brand executives cite the introduction of new products as their top priority for the next twelve months. The brands’ answer: creativity. Colour, form, playfulness.
The Gelato Principle
Norqain launched its “Ice Cream” watch this summer—pastel-coloured dials inspired by gelato. “We feel the need of our clients for some joy and carefreeness,” explains Ben Kuffer, Founder and CEO of Norqain. “We clearly see a trend for watches that are fun and different, some of which remind them of their childhood.”
Oris presented the New Big Crown with colourful dials, Blancpain a Fifty Fathoms in pink. Even Chanel, traditionally fixed on black and white, ventured a limited J12 edition in blue.
Yet the question remains: Is the Gelato Principle an economically viable answer to the crisis—or merely a tactical manoeuvre in an overheated innovation cycle? Can playfulness and colour actually rescue sales when purchasing power is under pressure and consumers are becoming more selective? Or will this aesthetic offensive be overtaken by the next trend wave in twelve months, while the industry’s structural problems remain unsolved? Innovation here means less technical precision than the attempt to purchase attention through visual signals—in a market that increasingly distinguishes between genuine substance and short-lived marketing.
Form is also evolving. Patek Philippe introduced the Cubitus in 2024—a square design that stands out in a landscape still dominated by round cases. TAG Heuer revived the iconic Monaco.
Simultaneously, heritage pulls: Panerai honoured a 1993 model with the Luminar Marina Militare PAM05218. Cartier brought back the Tank à Guichet, originally launched in 1928. Vacheron Constantin reactivated the 222 from 1977. Tiffany & Co. paid tribute to Jean Schlumberger’s Bird on a Rock brooch from 1965 in January 2025.
AI as Creative Partner
The technological frontier now extends into the design atelier itself. Nearly one-third of executives (29%) plan to deploy artificial intelligence to support the creative product development process—a significant increase from 20% in 2023.
AI is no longer used solely for content creation or efficiency gains. Brands are beginning to experiment: with algorithmic form-finding, with generative design processes, with AI-supported material simulation. The precision of the future is digital—even in the creative realm. Despite the cautious mood, more than half of brands target organic growth or expansion into new markets. M&A activity is dormant—growth must be cultivated, not bought.
But the harsher reality also shows: 46% of brand executives cite cost reduction as a strong priority. In 2023, it was only 10%.
Consolidation and Verticalization: Strategic Retreat Inward
Retailers are fighting too. In 2023, all surveyed retail executives focused on e-commerce and digital channels, two-thirds on omnichannel. 2025? Different priorities.
Organic growth (60%) and optimisation of sales channels (53%) now top the list. Omnichannel is only relevant for 47%, e-commerce has dropped out of the top 5 entirely. Cost reduction climbed to 40% (2023: 11%). The shift is explained by market changes: consumers are returning to physical stores. The sweet spot for digital sales has been found—now other things matter.
This is visible on the streets. In March 2025, Les Ambassadeurs, a Geneva retail flagship since 1964, closed its boutique in Geneva. Zurich followed. Lucerne is expected to close by year-end. At the same time, O. Zbinden, another Geneva institution, announced restructuring into mono-brand stores. But not every closure signals retreat. Often it’s restructuring, consolidation. Watches of Switzerland Group closed several showrooms in the UK—but simultaneously opened the largest Rolex mono-brand store in London.
The Mono-Brand Push
Brands increasingly prefer their own boutiques. Control over layout, training, customer experience, data. Audemars Piguet pioneered in 2017 and has since sold exclusively through its own boutiques. Others followed. In 2023, Rolex acquired Bucherer—one of the largest distribution networks brought directly under control.
This structural shift hits independent retailers hard. Less foot traffic, fewer points of sale, tougher market conditions.
The Tourism Factor
Adding to this: tourists are missing. Overall visitor numbers to Switzerland grew—Mexico increased by +114% in 2024 compared to 2019. But Asian tourists, particularly Chinese, are staying away. Overnight stays from China: -48%. From Japan: -38%. From Hong Kong: -32%.
These customers were crucial for Swiss watch retailers. The strong franc exacerbates the problem. Less foot traffic, lower revenues, tougher competition.
The Rebirth of Independence: Resilience of the Small Players
The suppliers, the invisible backbone of the Swiss watch industry, are fighting hardest. They carry the Swiss Made label, preserve centuries-old know-how—and feel the downturn first.
Their priorities reflect the crisis: Cost reduction (74%) and new product development (61%) top the list. Nearly one-third cite cashflow improvement as an important goal.
How Have Suppliers Responded?
63%
Introduced short-time work (RHT)
43%
Eliminated temporary positions
27%
Diversified into other industries
Data visualization | The Silent Luxury
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